The evolution of thermal performance curves and life-history traits in responses to thermal selection

Evolution

published article
Authors
Affiliations

Giacomo Zilio

Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier

Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionelle et Evolutive

Iain R. Moodie

Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier

Sarthak P. Malusare

Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier

Marie-Ange Devillez

Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier

Justina Givens

Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier

Claire Gougat-Barbera

Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier

Emanuel A. Fronhofer

Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier

Published

March 27, 2026

Abstract
Thermal performance curves (TPCs) capture how population growth depends on temperature. When temperatures increase, such as during global change, TPCs may evolve to match new environmental temperatures. While previous studies mostly focus on population growth rate TPCs, evolution can also be strongly trait-dependent and require a multi-trait analysis. Here, we empirically tested how TPCs and multiple demographic, life-history and movement traits evolve by selecting four freshwater protist species at increased temperatures starting from clonal populations. After ten months of selection, populations showed a signature of evolutionary responses to the highest selection temperatures in different traits depending on the species. Particularly, we found consistent evolutionary reductions in body size in the three species having the largest cells and evolved changes in movement behaviour in all species. In contrast, we observed few modifications in population growth rate TPCs. These results suggest that adaptation, via evolution of TPCs, might involve the concurrent evolution of several traits. However, this may be species-specific and difficult from de-novo mutation alone, suggesting that natural populations that do not have sufficient standing genetic variation might have to rely on other means of mitigating the effects of climate change, such as dispersal.

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Citation

BibTeX citation:
@article{zilio2026,
  author = {Zilio, Giacomo and Moodie, Iain R. and Malusare, Sarthak P.
    and Devillez, Marie-Ange and Givens, Justina and Gougat-Barbera,
    Claire and Fronhofer, Emanuel A.},
  title = {The Evolution of {Thermal} {Performance} {Curves} and
    Life-History Traits in Responses to Thermal Selection},
  journal = {Evolution},
  date = {2026-03-27},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/evolut/qpag052},
  doi = {10.1093/evolut/qpag052},
  langid = {en},
  abstract = {Thermal performance curves (TPCs) capture how population
    growth depends on temperature. When temperatures increase, such as
    during global change, TPCs may evolve to match new environmental
    temperatures. While previous studies mostly focus on population
    growth rate TPCs, evolution can also be strongly trait-dependent and
    require a multi-trait analysis. Here, we empirically tested how TPCs
    and multiple demographic, life-history and movement traits evolve by
    selecting four freshwater protist species at increased temperatures
    starting from clonal populations. After ten months of selection,
    populations showed a signature of evolutionary responses to the
    highest selection temperatures in different traits depending on the
    species. Particularly, we found consistent evolutionary reductions
    in body size in the three species having the largest cells and
    evolved changes in movement behaviour in all species. In contrast,
    we observed few modifications in population growth rate TPCs. These
    results suggest that adaptation, via evolution of TPCs, might
    involve the concurrent evolution of several traits. However, this
    may be species-specific and difficult from de-novo mutation alone,
    suggesting that natural populations that do not have sufficient
    standing genetic variation might have to rely on other means of
    mitigating the effects of climate change, such as dispersal.}
}
For attribution, please cite this work as:
Zilio, G., I. R. Moodie, S. P. Malusare, M.-A. Devillez, J. Givens, C. Gougat-Barbera, and E. A. Fronhofer. 2026. The evolution of Thermal Performance Curves and life-history traits in responses to thermal selection. Evolution.